On 28 May, Drewry's World Container Index put a 40-foot box from Shanghai to Rotterdam at $2,861, up 3% in a week and rising for the third week running. Shanghai to Genoa climbed 4% to $4,253. The same week, CMA CGM told customers it will lift Asia-to-North-Europe freight to $4,700 per 40-foot container from 1 June, with West Mediterranean ports going to $5,500. Peak season has landed about a month early this year, so the orders you confirm this week are the ones that still catch the lower number.
What is pushing rates up
A few forces are stacking at once, and none of them favour a buyer who waits.
Demand has been pulled forward. Freight platforms reported an early uptick on the Asia-to-Europe lane through May, with Northern Europe sitting near $2,800 per 40-foot container before the latest jump (Freightos weekly update, 19 May 2026). Importers who normally book summer stock in late June are booking now, partly to get ahead of a bunker-fuel surcharge adjustment that carriers have flagged for around 1 July.
Capacity is still taking the long way around. Most carriers continue to route Asia-to-Europe sailings around the Cape of Good Hope rather than through the Red Sea, which adds roughly ten days per rotation and ties up ships that would otherwise add slots. Fewer slots into a rising-demand window is the textbook setup for a climb.
Carriers are using the moment. CMA CGM's 1 June move is a rate increase of about $1,800 per 40-foot box, valid only for the first half of the month (Container News, May 2026). Other lines have announced June increases aiming for as much as $2,000 per container above current levels. Whether the full amount sticks is uncertain. The upward direction is clear.
What this changes for your next order
If you have a Q3 order close to ready, the freight math has already moved against you, and it moves again at the next rate-increase window. The useful response is to split the two decisions you normally make together: when production finishes, and when the box actually sails.
Confirm production timing first. A factory in Ningbo or Shenzhen quoting a 35-day lead time is handing you a sail date in early July, right as the bunker adjustment and the next increase land. Pull the purchase order forward by even two weeks and you change which rate sheet your container ships under.
Then nail down the freight terms behind the price. A quote of "all-in, door to door" hides which June rate sheet it sits on and who absorbs the increase if your cargo slips into the next window. Ask the forwarder, in writing, which validity window your rate is locked to and what happens if the vessel rolls. On an FOB booking that question is yours to manage. With DDP, the answer is buried in someone else's margin, which our guide on DDP shipping from China breaks down.
This is also the season when corners get cut. A rate that stays suspiciously flat while every index climbs is usually flat because something has been shifted off your invoice and onto your risk, like a shared consolidation or a declared value that will not survive an audit. The cheaper the quote looks against a rising market, the harder you should look at it.
The move this week
Pull your near-ready orders forward and get the sail date in writing. Then confirm which rate window your freight is locked to before 1 June. An importer running production through one thread can do that in an afternoon, because the factory timeline and the shipping booking live in the same conversation rather than two disconnected inboxes. That is how Full Production Management handles a rising market: the order and the container move together, with a named forwarder and real customs paperwork in your name.
Rates will keep climbing through June. The orders you place before they do are the ones that ship cheaper.
Earlier in the process? Supplier verification in China and supplier sourcing in China cover the steps before the container.
Sources: Drewry World Container Index, 28 May 2026; CMA CGM FAK Asia-North Europe, effective 1 June 2026 (Container News); Freightos weekly update, 19 May 2026.